THE FUTURE
WHAT DOES IT HAVE IN STORE FOR US ?
Futures studies remains a highly specialized field of study for schools;
but considering it was only introduced in the 1960s, it’s made a solid
footprint in academia. Here in the U.S., only a few schools have prominent
Futures Studies programs, including the University of Houston and University of
Hawaii. Abroad, however, schools from France to India have a Futures
curriculum, with perhaps the largest program located at Taiwan’s Tamkang
University.
I think we could see an expansion of futures programs (and, by
extension, the futurology profession), but not simply on the back of
technological progress. Ultimately, in my view, will only become more widely
acknowledged and adopted as the concept is applied to a broader variety of
industries beyond sciences like engineering and IT. We’re seeing this now in
finance and economics, but I believe it could expand further to areas like
political science and education.
There are more resources on Futures
Studies that interested readers can explore, including the World Futures
Studies Federation’s website (http://www.wfsf.org) and Metafuture (http://www.metafuture.org/).
Dr. Ian Pearson, Futurologist
You could call Ian Pearson “The
Man of Tomorrow.” Since 1991, he has made his livelihood by foretelling the
future—in a manner of speaking—through meticulous analysis and research. His
predictions have surmised the rise of social technologies and trends, including
the earliest conceptions of now-ubiquitous tools such as text messaging, with a
noted accuracy rate of 85 percent. But Dr. Pearson’s profession isn’t
fortune-telling or clairvoyance; he is a prominent figure in the growing field
of futurology.
A graduate of Northern Ireland’s Queen’s
University, Pearson came to his current career while employed as an engineer
for England’s BT Laboratories. In 1991, he began conceiving long-term progress
trends in business and technology, and his job title accordingly changed to
that of “futurologist.” After parting ways with BT in 2007, he went solo to
found Futurizon, offering
his expertise to a multitude of clients through consulting services and
seminars. Dr. Pearson was kind enough to discuss his work, his rate of error,
and his competition with a tech-savvy daughter.
Vault: When did you first become aware of the
field of futurology, and how did you come to make it your career?
Ian Pearson: Well, I
started my working life in design of far future missile systems, doing computer
modeling and stuff (based on my Maths and Physics
degree), then moved on to far future telecoms, and obviously in all that kind
of work you have to spend some time thinking about the market you are aiming
the products and services at, not just designing the technology itself. It was
only later while in far future network planning in 1991 that I discovered that
I could write about the futures bits all the time without my boss telling me to
get back to work and get on with the engineering. I didn’t realize it was a
proper profession till about 1993 when the media started calling me a
futurologist. Much more fun than ‘executive engineer’, so I stuck with that
title ever since.
V: Describe the general process you
employ to conceive your theories. How much of your time is spent researching,
versus the time you might spend purely brainstorming?
IP: I
worked in computer modeling for a decade, so of course my first toolset for
futures stuff was also computer modeling, but I soon found it was of limited
use because you never know all the variables or equations, so it is better to
use your brain, which is good at working with vague values and vague
interactions. It helped that I was trained as a systems engineer and had a
broad engineering background already when I started, so now I just use common
sense, logical clear thinking, and occasional calculations. About a third of my
time is reading and other research, a third thinking it all through, and a
third sharing results with people.
V: Other than the inevitable
misconceptions of being akin to a “soothsayer,” what are some typical false
impressions of futurology that you’ve encountered?
IP: The
most common one is that it can’t work—no one can predict the future. Ergo I
must be an idiot and wasting their time. In fact, many things are quite
predictable, such as progress in technology, and many of the impacts of that
technology are pretty obvious too when you think about it. So actually although
you can never get it 100 percent accurate, 85 to 90 percent accuracy over a
10-year timeframe is certainly achievable.
V: You’re most often credited with the
invention of text messaging. When conversing via text messages, do you ever have the urge to tell the other party “You’re welcome” (or,
more fittingly, “U R welcome”)?
IP: I try
to avoid using short-forms, much preferring proper words and sentences, but I
rely on my iPhone to put in the apostrophes automatically, I’m not that fussy
about it. I like to irritate my daughter by being more up to date with tech
than she is, and especially talking about future fashion and areas that teens
think are their territory. But actually, though I am perfectly able to use new
tools, I still much prefer email to texts or IM.
V: Since leaving BT, you founded
Futurizon and began offering your services via consultation and speaking
engagements. What motivated you to strike out on your own? Do you prefer
engaging different clients to working in-house for a sole employer?
IP: There
comes a point where you outgrow your office, like a bird thinking the nest is
looking a bit dull these days, just before it learns to fly. I started doing
lots of things outside BT and got to the point where my interests didn’t always
run hand in hand with BT’s. Eventually, both of us decided it was time for me
to go. And I’ve never looked back. I much prefer the freedom to work with
different clients every day, sometimes several in a day. It never gets dull,
and I never have to do corporate admin. But I think the feeling is mutual. I
don’t think anyone would want to employ me full time now.
