THE CONOMIST VIEWS ON THE THREATS TO OUR ECONOMY

Zanny Minton Beddoes Editor-in-chief The strength of the world economy in 2023 has been a continuing—and continually surprising—source of good news. This time last year most people expected America’s economy to be in recession by now; instead it grew at a barnstorming annualised pace of 4.9% in the third quarter. Across the world, economies have proved surprisingly resilient as central banks have raised interest rates, and inflation has fallen to boot. Unfortunately, as we argue in our cover leader this week, trouble lies ahead. Markets now expect interest rates to stay “higher for longer”, which is going to squeeze companies, households and indebted governments. The new era threatens to pit hawkish central bankers against spendthrift politicians in a tug-of-war over what matters most: keeping inflation down or avoiding painful austerity. We also have a new newsletter, Essential India, launching on November 9th. Delivered every Thursday, this free newsletter will help you understand a vast and complicated country that will increasingly shape the future. You can sign up here.